This is the first investment report published by Polaris Equity Research.
AAK specializes in plant-based oils and fats, serving customers across food, personal care and technical applications globally. It is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm. While the company is classified as large cap by market capitalisation, it is included in the Solactive ISS ESG Screened Sweden Small Cap Tradable Index — the index tracked by XACT Svenska Småbolag, which serves as the Polaris Equity Research portfolio benchmark.
The investment thesis in brief
AAK has a documented track record of consistent EBIT-per-kilogram (EBIT/kg) expansion — from SEK 0.99 (2020) to SEK 2.45 (2025). The market is trading the stock at or near its 52-week low despite structurally intact fundamentals, penalising weak cash flow conversion that we believe is partially cyclical and addressable. A gradual recovery of volumes and a linear margin trajectory toward management's SEK 3+/kg target by 2030 are not yet fully priced in. Our base case DCF implies an intrinsic value of SEK 358 per share, representing 51% upside from the current price of SEK 237.
Verdict: Buy. Target price SEK 358.
The full investment report is attached below.
What to watch
The Q2 2026 report in July will be the first meaningful test of the thesis. The three metrics to watch in order of importance: NWC/revenue — any movement toward 25% or below would directly address the market's primary concern and is the single most important indicator. EBIT/kg — above SEK 2.60 would indicate profitability improvements are tracking ahead of schedule. Volume growth — the first quarter of positive year-on-year volume growth (excluding the divested Hillside facility) would validate the volume recovery assumption.
A follow-up note will be published following the Q2 2026 report in July.
This report has been prepared for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All content is produced by a private individual. Past analytical conclusions are no guarantee of future accuracy.
